It's virus time, guyz. Welcome to Pandemic.

[Pepe]

I was looking forward to playing at a special gig during the annual culture festival in my town at the end of the month. It was cancelled.

And schools, etc. are closed now. So we have all the kids at home for the next weeks. Yawn!

[Jwar]

The United States is not prepared for this at all. This whole thing is a huge mess. I as well don't feel too awesome and am concerned that I was exposed. I work at a school now and am probably in a high risk category I'd imagine from that alone. It's elementary too and in a rich area. So, everyone was traveling and they are going to travel and come back. There are already talks of me not being able to go back for a month or my kiddos. I'm in OP, KS for reference. Fucking mayor of KC declared an emergency, so it's already happening.



Here are my thoughts.

Stop buying n95 masks. First things first. Medical professionals are running out of them and 3M cannot keep up with production. Also, there is no evidence that they will fully protect you or even really limit your changes of getting this. They are made to block particulates. Not microscopic viruses. Ever painted a house or anything for that matter and still get fumes and still smell everything. There you go. If you were going to get a mask, you need one with a charcoal filters or get a self contained breathing pack. Good luck there. Each way, you're breathing through a straw. I can't even do it because I have sleep apnea. If you have to wear one, at least get one that you can change that damn filters so they don't run out.

Hospitals are going to be a madhouse. We do not have enough medical professionals on hand to cover this. We could be fucked here.

Do not go in overcrowded places unless you need to.

Be aware that fear is setting in and mob mentality is a strong thing. I'm getting my guns back today because of this bullshit. People are going nuts.

[01010111]

Stop buying n95 masks. First things first. Medical professionals are running out of them and 3M cannot keep up with production. Also, there is no evidence that they will fully protect you or even really limit your changes of getting this. They are made to block particulates. Not microscopic viruses.

I agree that hoarding those masks is the wrong thing to do. However the rest of your statement isn’t completely accurate. N96 masks are masks that filter out 95% of particles that are .3 microns or larger. The coronavirus is at the lower limit of that size, so, those masks to offer some protection. Those masks definitely won’t help with chemical fumes, and may not help at all with smaller viruses. However they have been shown to help and have been recommended by the CDC and WHO.

So, if you’re someone who can work from home and self-isolate, having/hoarding those masks won’t help you. If you’re someone who has to work with the public on a regular basis, having a multi-use mask to take with you is probably a good thing to do. Though the best thing is really to keep that 6 foot personal bubble, cover your cough, and wash your hands before touching your face.

[repoman]

So....
Uh.
In the US, there were 350,000 people hospitalized last year for the flu, and 31,000 deaths attributed to it. (Globally, seasonal flu kills 650,000)

So far GLOBALLY, in 3 months there have been 156,433 cases of corona, and 5,821 deaths.

Is it possible that this virus is basically the seasonal flu, or mixed in with the seasonal flu and people haven't been hysterical about it because there was no testing identifying it?
And that the global economy came close to complete collapse due to fear mongering by the media?

[Scruffie]

So....
Uh.
In the US, there were 350,000 people hospitalized last year for the flu, and 31,000 deaths attributed to it. (Globally, seasonal flu kills 650,000)

So far GLOBALLY, in 3 months there have been 156,433 cases of corona, and 5,821 deaths.

Is it possible that this virus is basically the seasonal flu, or mixed in with the seasonal flu and people haven't been hysterical about it because there was no testing identifying it?
And that the global economy came close to complete collapse due to fear mongering by the media?

Yeah... no, seasonal flu has some protection from herd immunity and vaccines, this is brand spanking new and has a lot of undetermined factor that makes tracking and prediction difficult.

Seasonal flu is bad, but uncontrolled, this could wipe out a lot of people. A lot of people wont suffer much, some wont suffer at all, but they'll be damn good at spreading it to people who will suffer. This is a variation on the SARS virus, it's different and the infection rate is considered to be much higher than actually reported due to very poor testing, the death rate might be too, might not, there hasn't been a very good global response to this (which is probably why it's gotten to this point).

And the global economy came close to collapse due to masses of bad debt with an unknown crisis piled on top of it... this was just a catalyst.

Just wash your hands (which people should do anyway) and don't lick people... much and don't go on hunches.

Consider this a second flu on top of regular flu, health services aren't prepared for it, this kind of speculation is super unhelpful.

[jrfox92]

Is it possible that this virus is basically the seasonal flu, or mixed in with the seasonal flu and people haven't been hysterical about it because there was no testing identifying it?
And that the global economy came close to complete collapse due to fear mongering by the media?

Y....y'know that scientists were the ones that identified the virus, right?
The name is literally novel coronavirus disease 2019, or COVID-19. The problem with it is the novel part, meaning antibodies don't exist in anyone for it, vaccines don't exist for it, etc.
Like scruffie said, it's basically another flu on top of the flu that's already going around. Except COVID-19 has three stages: cold-like symptoms, flu-like symptoms, pneumonia, then death if you're body can't handle the first 3 stages.

The TL;DR of why it's a big deal is that it's a brand new respiratory disease with no vaccine which cause carriers to be asymptomatic for 2 weeks while highly contagious and then can hit infected with hardcore flu symptoms until they get pneumonia, which can lead to permanent lung damage or death. And the big deal is that it's 30 times deadlier than the flu, and again, there's no vaccine.

[TraceItalian]

I finally get to use that reusable mask my friend got me in China years ago. Seriously though, this shit show is hitting my local grocery stores hard. Most of the people in my cul de sac are elderly or disabled, so me and my next door neighbor have been doing grocery shopping for them. I don't know if that jackass from Hixson passed through my town or people are just taking cues from him, but it really sucks having to come back short of items because of the panic buying.

[jrfox92]

My state just shut down all restaurants and bars that don't deliver.
I haven't been to a sit-down restaurant in years, but it feels like it's only a matter of time before martial law gets declared here.

[cantremember]

Crazy, I wonder how long all this is going to last? Seems kinda scary to think everything is going to be shut down for any long periods of time.

[Blackened Soul]

but it feels like it's only a matter of time before martial law gets declared here.

Well, I never!

[repoman]

So here is data collected from Wuhan



And here is data of last years flu season in the US, which was typical.



Both show very low risk of death for people under 65, the metrics aren't the same, but death rates look quite comparable for those over 65.




I see a lot about how Korea saved themselves by testing a lot of people. This doesn't make any sense to me, testing doesn't cure you, and out of a population of 52 million, South Korea has tested only 248,000 so far, yet everyone is saying this is a success and they are in a good place... huh?

Korea had no where near the extreme quarantine proceedures that Wuhan had, yet somehow simply by testing a lot of people, this made their covid19 death rate 0.9% instead of 4.5% in Wuhan. None of these numbers or explanations makes any sense what so ever.

[Blackened Soul]

Korea had no where near the extreme quarantine proceedures that Wuhan had, yet somehow simply by testing a lot of people, this made their covid19 death rate 0.9% instead of 4.5% in Wuhan. None of these numbers or explanations makes any sense what so ever.

So... you are saying info coming out of china seems inaccurate... Well, I never....

[Scruffie]

Because you don't test just everyone, you track cases, find out where it originated, who that person has been in contact with and then isolate them. Locking down is only the answer when you fail at early containment, through say... refusing German made testing kits for your own and delaying response by weeks so it's too late. Or punishing doctors who report a suspicious new disease rather than damage your party and country image.

And again, we know the flu is deadly already, this is still on top of the existing flu and has different modes of action. Unchecked, this will live alongside flu and the health services cannot cope with that, anywhere. The flu also has vaccines and some existing immunity, this has nothing to stop it spreading to absolutely everyone because it's totally new.

We know people over 60+ are at the most risk, but the problem is children especially can carry this with no symptoms and pass it on to grandma and grandad, even some adults show no symptoms and can easily spread it to people who will be at risk.

Death rates have been speculated from 0.6 to 3%, but unchecked infection rates have been predicted at 80%, that's a lot of dead people.

We don't know what will happen, it might go away, but the so called 'Spanish Flu' was 'just flu' and had a slow response and wiped out between 17 to 100 million people. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

[01010111]

As someone currently living in South Korea and having coworkers that currently live in China, I can definitely say the official quarantine measures in South Korea aren’t as extreme as what they’re doing in China. In South Korea they’re asking people to work remotely and avoid large crowds, and people here listen to that sort of thing. In the Southern part of the country where the outbreak’s been the worse, they’re taking more extreme measures but I’m not sure on the specifics. I just know to get in or out of Daegu you can’t have any symptoms, and they have checkpoints that you have to clear in order to get in/out.

In China only one person-per-household-per-day can leave to get supplies, and they check your temperature when you’re leaving your apartment. The quarantine procedures there were much more forced, but the outbreak was also MUCH more widespread there.

Up until there was the massive outbreak in the Southern part of South Korea, they made it public knowledge where the new cases had been the days up until they tested positive. Then you could decide for yourself how much contact you’ve had. One of grocery stores in my neighborhood was sterilized because someone who tested positive had been there that day.

Also, any business where there’s been an outbreak has to close for three days while the South Korean government sterilizes everything. The government’s also controlling the production and distribution of air masks to keep people from price gouging/hoarding. We get emergency alerts pushed to our phones multiple times a day giving us updates on if there’s been a new case in our area, or if they just want to remind people to avoid large crowds, cover their coughs, and wash their hands. If we were in quarantine because we were infected, government officials would show up twice a day to check our temperature. Schools here have been closed for four weeks, and I haven’t heard anything on when they’ll reopen. Because we knew the US wasn’t doing enough to fight this, we chose to stay here where they were actually doing something.

[jrfox92]

Both show very low risk of death for people under 65, the metrics aren't the same, but death rates look quite comparable for those over 65.

The rates are even remotely comparable?
Age group----COVID-19%-----Flu%
0-4 yrs-------- 0.0-------------0.0073
5-17 yrs-------0.2-------------0.0027
18-49 yrs------0.3-------------0.02
50-64 yrs------2.45-----------0.06
65+ yrs--------11.4------------0.83

In other words, COVID-19 is:
74 times deadlier for 5-17 yrs
15 times deadlier for 18-49 yrs
41 times deadlier for 50-64 yrs
14 times deadlier for 65+ yrs
(someone check my math, please)

So, as it is, only a couple hundred thousand have been infected, but if COVID-19 infected anywhere near the amount of people annually infected by the flu, the death toll would be insane.
EDIT: I went ahead and figured it out, roughly 35 million people in the US get infected with the flu annually. If that many people were infected with COVID-19, that would result in 1.2 million deaths in the US.